Forex trading plan for March 1
The meeting of G20 finance ministers brought no big results disappointing the market. The People’s Bank of China cut the reserve requirement ratio in order to calm down the markets and improve sentiment. US data releases were negative on Monday: pending home sales contracted by 2.5% in January, and Chicago PMI came at 47.5 vs. the forecast of 51.2. On Tuesday watch Chinese official and Caixin Manufacturing PMIs: these releases will have big impact on the market’s mood.
USD/JPY recoiled down from 114.00. Traders bought Japanese currency as a refuge on the back of the falling Asian shares. Support is at 112.00. The pair is expected to maintain sideways trading in the 114.40/111.00 area.
AUD/USD has support at 0.7110/00. The currency failed to overcome 200-day MA (0.7265). The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision at 03:30 GMT. The RBA is expected to keep rates unchanged. If 0.7100 holds, Aussie will be able to recover to 0.7200 and 0.7240. Below 0.7100 AUD/USD will fall to 0.7070 and 0.7015.
EUR/USD opened with a gap down and then failed to return above the former support at 1.0960. The region’s worse-than-expected inflation data sent the single currency down to 1.0860. On Tuesday the euro area will release final manufacturing PMIs for February. No changes of the weaker data are expected. The focus is on 1.0830/00. After that the next support will be at 1.0710.
GBP/USD remained under pressure after it closed below 1.3900 on Friday. The pound was under pressure as polls showed that the “out” vote is becoming grows in popularity. At the same time, GBP/USD is very oversold, but will find resistance at 1.4000 and 1.4080. Support is at 1.3800. British pound looks more vulnerable against Japanese yen. Britain will release manufacturing PMI at 09:30 GMT.