Currency Analyst since 2010

Forex trading plan for March 24

By Elizabeth Belugina

Global risk sentiment, which worsened after bomb attacks in Brussels, managed to recover. US dollar index kept correcting up on more hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve officials and has space to get higher. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said that the Fed should consider another interest rate hike as early as in April if US economic continues improving. FOMC member Bullard will speak once again at 12:15 GMT on Thursday. In addition, America will release core durable goods orders at 12:30 GMT (negative forecast) as well as the unemployment claims.

EUR/USD keeps declining and will likely test the next Fibo level at 1.1145. Next support is vat 1.1080 and 1.1050. Resistance is at 1.1220 ahead of 1.1270. The ECB Board Member Sabine Lautenschlaeger said that interest rates could also go lower, though the Bundesbank head Jens Weidmann claimed that the ECB went too far in March, so opinions differ. There will be no market moving data from the euro area on Thursday.  

GBP/USD slid to 1.4150. Britain will release retail sales at 09:30 GMT. The forecast is negative (-0.7%). Brexit uncertainty remains on the table. In these conditions, the pound will be vulnerable to 1.4095, 1.4050 (March 16 low) and 1.4000.

USD/JPY has almost reached 113.00 (trend line resistance) and may get to 114.00 if it fixes above 113.00 as traders begin to price in potential increase of the Bank of Japan’s monetary stimulus in April. Support is at 112.30, 111.00 and 111.00.

AUD/USD is overbought and needs to correct down to 0.7530/00 and probably even lower before it resumes growth. There is a Bank holiday in Australia and New Zealand on Thursday.  

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