Currency Analyst since 2010

By Elizabeth Belugina

The US dollar’s decline was tempered by good economic data released on Friday, but the dovish words by Janet Yellen still affect American currency. On Tuesday pay some attention to US trade balance at 12:30 GMT and ISM non-manufacturing PMI at 14:00 GMT.

EUR/USD keeps consolidating around 1.1380 after its thrust to the upside at the end of March. There was news about tensions between Greece and the IMF, though the impact on the euro wasn’t high. The euro area’s Sentix investor confidence index increased marginally to 5.7 from the previous 5.5, but below market's expectations of 6.9. Producer prices declined more than forecast. On Tuesday Germany will release factory orders data at 06:00 GMT (good forecast). All in all, there are buyers for the euro. Increase above 1.1440 should open the way to 1.1500. Support is at 1.1355 and 1.1300.   

GBP/USD jumped to 1.4325, where it faces resistance. Britain will release services PMI at 08:30 GMT (the forecast is good). However, be careful of further longs, as pound risks being hit by political news. Support is at 1.4275, 1.4240 and 1.4200. Resistance is at 1.4350 and 1.4400. 

The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its decision at 04:30 on Tuesday. The most interesting thing will be the RBA’s comments on the levels of Australian dollar. AUD/USD rose by almost 8% since the last meeting of the central bank. Although, the recent data from China and Australia were rather good, there’s a good chance that the regulator will try to make Aussie go down a bit, especially taking into account the fact that the Federal Reserve is now less hawkish. Support is at 0.7590 and 0.7550. Resistance is at 0.7680 (March 18 high).

USD/JPY is still vulnerable for more declines to 111.00/110.60. Japanese Prime Minister is expected to outline the specifics of budget at a cabinet meeting tomorrow and there may be talk of fiscal stimulus, which can benefit the yen. According to the Bank of Japan’s survey, Japanese companies' long-term inflation expectations weakened in March from three months ago. Still, for now traders are not focused on the Bank of Japan, and this weighs on the pair.


Scroll to top