Currency Analyst since 2010

EUR/USD: a breakthrough is coming

Elizabeth Belugina

EUR/USD was trading sideways in the past week. Neither the FOMC meeting minutes, nor the ECB president Mario Draghi unbalanced the pair. The lack of aggressive comments from the ECB speaks for itself: the current levels of the single currency and the prospect of its appreciation by several big figures don’t disturb the regulator too much. This factor should provide demand for the euro on the dips.

What kind of dip can we see? The general trend for EUR/USD remains bullish. We have seen a rather long consolidation between 1.1440 and 1.1325 and the moment of a breakthrough is getting closer. The targets will lie at 1.1550 in case of the move to the upside and 1.1200 in case of a decline.

Let’s now look at the fundamentals. Next week there will be few news from the euro area. You may pay attention to industrial production on Wednesday and the final inflation figures on Thursday. Much will depend on data from the US: the faith in the greenback will return only if the figures are good. Consensus forecasts show that the experts expect American retail sales and consumer prices to rise, and this may provide room for moderate strength in the US currency.

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