Currency Analyst since 2010

Forex trading plan for April 12

By Elizabeth Belugina

US dollar index fell to 94.00. Later on Monday the Federal Reserve will hold a closed meeting on interest rates. The last time the Fed conducted such meeting was in November 2015, ahead of the rate hike. However, given the dovish position of the Fed’s head Janet Yellen, traders don’t expect the same to happen this time. However, the Fed will release an announcement sometime after 18:00 GMT, and we should learn more about the regulator’s position from it.

Oil prices represent another important market mover. A very important meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers will take place on April 17.

Global stocks rose on Monday, but the positive movement may be brief as the earnings season starts in the US, and the figures will likely be bad.

EUR/USD keeps trading sideways with a small upward bias. Support is at 1.1380, 1.1330 and 1.1300. Resistance is at 1.1455 and 1.1500. No news from the euro area, message from the Fed is in focus.

GBP/USD jumped to 1.4250 on Monday retracing more than 50% of the decline from 1.4460 to 1.4000. The UK will release inflation data at 08:30 GMT. The market expects an improvement in the UK inflation figures, though traders don’t think that the Bank of England will change policy or sound more hawkish at its meeting on Thursday. As a result, we prefer selling GBP/USD on attempts to get higher. Resistance is at 1.4320, 1.4350 and 1.4400. Support is at 1.4180, 1.4135 and 1.4055.

USD/JPY recovered for the second time from the levels below 107.70. Targets for correction up lie at 108.75, 109.10 and 109.50. Break below 107.60 will open the way down to bigger support at 106.60.

If AUD/USD closes the day above 0.7600, it will turn to 0.7670. Failure will result in decline to 0.7500. 

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