Trading plan for April 13: beware the Chinese dragon
US Dollar still remains vulnerable with the USD Index holding below 95 points. Investors remain skeptical about the Fed’s tightening prospects on the April 27 meeting. What’s more, the US currency is hurt by the strong oil market recovery: Brent price broke above 43 dollars on Tuesday. Such а positive market sentiment could be hurt by China’s trade balance on Wednesday – beware the risk. Tomorrow you should also watch US retail sales and PPI: upbeat forecasts pave the ground for a local USD retracement.
EUR/USD is consolidating slightly below the 1.1400 mark. On Tuesday, bulls were trying to break this figure to the upside, but faced strong resistance at 1.1460. In the medium term, we expect the US Dollar to extend the upside, but the 1.1450/1.1510 area is a hard nut to crack. Key support – 1.1350.
GBP/USD has also pushed to the upside on strong UK labor market figures, but was capped by 1.4350. You may see a long-legged candle being formed on the daily chart. The 55-day MA is now acting as a resistance, so we expect the pair to retest 1.4050 in the coming sessions.
As for USD/JPY, a local double bottom is being formed here with a neckline at 108.40. Correction could extend to 109.00.
What’s more, the USD/CAD pair is worth observing these days. Bears are dominating for a third consecutive day. Break below the strong support at 1.2800 (March highs) would pave the ground for more downside. Bank of Canada is scheduled to meet on Wednesday – negative comments about the CAD’s strength could become a temporary risk for our bearish forecast.