Currency Analyst since 2010

Forex trading plan for April 14

By Elizabeth Belugina

Chinese trade balance have diminished traders’ concerns about the economic outlook for Asian and global economy. Even the reduction in the IMF’s world growth forecast didn’t seem important in these circumstances.

US dollar index reversed up and has potential for further growth. Although American retail sales came below forecast, the previous reading was revised to the upside. US inflation data is due at 12:30 GMT on Thursday, the forecast is rather good.

European currency breached support levels versus US dollar and British pound. The euro area’s industrial production fell by 0.8% in February, making the biggest decline in 18 months. The region will release March inflation figures at 09:00 GMT. Focus on support at 1.1260 and 1.1210/00 for EUR/USD. The next important level is at 1.1140. Resistance is at 1.1330 и 1.1385.

GBP/USD was very volatile in the 1.4200/1.4300 area. British pound is positively reacting to oil prices growth. Yet, the results of the Bank of England’s meeting are due at 11:00 GMT on Thursday. No changes in the regulator’s policy and no hawkish statements are expected. Support is at 1.4170 and 1.4050, while resistance is at 1.4350 and 1.4400.

USD/JPY managed to recover as the market’s risk sentiment improved. The pair may test resistance at 109.50 and 110.00, by the way up won't be easy. Support is at 108.50.

AUD/USD once again tested levels above 0.7700. There was a bearish engulfing at H4, so Aussie is vulnerable for decline to 0.7630/00. Australia will release labor market data at 00:30 GMT. The forecast is mixed.

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