US Dollar: Fed on hold; wait for NFP
As we expected, the Fed decided to leave interest rates unchanged at the April 27 meeting. The Fed’s statement didn’t change significantly and leaves the prospects of the June 15 rate hike pretty uncertain. Of course, the economic releases will matter, but what should we expect from the US central bank? In my opinion, interest rates will likely remain on hold at least until December. The regulator will likely stand pat as additional volatility on the global markets is unwished ahead of the US November election.
Hesitant Fed is limiting the upside of the US dollar these days. What’s more, the Bank of Japan also hit the greenback by leaving policy unchanged last week and kicking USD/JPY below 108 yen. As a result, we’ve seen the USD Index falling below 94 points by the end of the week – this is the lowest level since August 2015. Support for the index is seen at 93.15 (May 2015 low). Some pullback could happen here, but the medium US Dollar trend remains bearish for now.
On the new week we’ll be watching the April PMI indices in the United States. Strong figure could render some temporarily support to the greenback, but are unlikely to change the whole picture. On Friday, May 6, markets will focus on the April labor market report. The US economy added 215 new jobs in May.