Large banks: expectations for NFP
Consensus forecast for NFP: 203K (Previous: 215K)
Consensus forecast for unemployment rate: 5.5% (Previous: 5.0%)
Consensus forecast for NFP: 0.3% (Previous: 0.3%)
Bank of America: Nonfarm payrolls will show a good gain of 200K, unemployment rate will hold at 5%, although there’s risk that it will increase because of the higher participation rate. Average hourly earnings will rise by only 0.2% on the monthly basis. Buy US dollar ahead of the NFP release as the labor market stability will be enough for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rate in June.
Barclays: NFP will rise by 250K, while unemployment rate will decline to 4.9% and average hourly earnings rise by 0.3%.
Credit Agricole: NFP will add 190K with unemployment rate staying at 5.0%. As global financial conditions, the Fed will adopt a more optimistic tone.
SEB: NFP will show 180K gain,unemployment rate should decrease to 4.9% and average hourly earnings rise by 0.3%.
Deutsche Bank: After ADP employment report for April disappointed, the market is pricing in a reading around 175K. If NFP is closer to 200k, this will be mildly positive for the US dollar. In this case consider buying US versus Australian and Canadian dollars. If NFP is lower, in 100-125K range, the expectations of the Fed’s rate hike will decline. Consider selling USD/JPY, if it happens. NFP reading below 100K will make USD decline against JPY, CHF and probably USD, but commodity currencies will also fall because of negative risk sentiment.