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Currency Analyst since 2010

US dollar: outlook for June 6-10

The US dollar index collapsed from 95.50 to more than 3-week low below 94.00 on Friday. Nonfarm payrolls report turned out to be a big disappointment for the market: American economy gained only 38K jobs in May versus 160K expected, while April reading was also revised to the downside. Although the unemployment rate declined from 5.0% to 4.7%, the expectations for the Federal Reserve’s rate hike in the coming months went sharply down. Traders now see only a 4% chance of an increase in June and 30% possibility of an increase in July.

The market players await the speech of the Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen later on Monday to see whether she keeps the door open for a July rate hike.

All in all, the drop in the rate hike expectations is surely a negative factor for the US dollar, but if Yellen sounds more optimistic, that should give the greenback support.

Other important economic releases due this week include job openings figures and crude oil inventories on Wednesday, unemployment claims on Thursday and consumer sentiment on Friday.  

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