Currency Analyst since 2010

EUR/USD: outlook for June 6-10

EUR/USD jumped to 3-week high above 1.1370 on Friday on weaker-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls report.

The 200-day MA at 1.1100 and the lower border of the uptrend channel, which has been in place since November, turned out to be a good support for the pair. However, further upside of the pair will be more difficult. Resistance lies at 1.1376 (February high), 1.1465 (April 12 high, monthly highs of 2015) and 1.1520 (declining 100-week MA, top of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud).

Among the negative factors for the pair in the coming week we should cite loose policy of the European Central Bank – the ECB will start purchases of corporate debt on June 8 and giving new ultra-cheap loans to banks on June 22 – and worries that Britain may leave the European Union.

The ability of the pair to expand last week’s advance will depend on what the US Federal Reserve’s Chairwoman Janet Yellen says on Monday or, in other words, on the market’s perception of the US rate hike timing. As for the European news, pay attention to German industrial production on Tuesday, the speech of the ECB President Mario Draghi on Thursday and comments of German Bundesbank President Jens Weidmann on Friday. 

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