Currency Analyst since 2010

USD/JPY: outlook for June 6-10

USD/JPY made a sharp fall last week as it collapsed from 111.45 to the 106.50 area (38.2% Fibonacci of 2011-2015 advance). There were 3 drivers of this move: delay of sales tax hike in Japan to October 2019, the market’s risk aversion and weak US nonfarm payrolls report.  

There’s a 200-week MA at 106.00, the line is still sloped to the upside and should provide some support. Below that the levels to watch will be 105.50 and 104.87 (weekly pivot). Note that closer to 105.00 the market will be much more cautious about the risk of monetary intervention from Japan aimed at not letting USD/JPY go much lower.

Japan will release current account data and final GDP reading for Q1 on Wednesday. Also watch economy watchers’ sentiment and core machinery orders on Thursday and tertiary industry activity on Friday. 

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