Currency Analyst since 2010

Forex trading plan for June 14

Forex market started a new week in a risk aversion mood because of the Brexit risk and the mass killing in Orlando, United States. Such environment was negative for the euro and British pound, but positive for Japanese yen. Industrial production and retail sales data from China matched the forecasts, and the release didn’t have a big impact on the market. The new week is also market by meeting of many central banks: Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Swiss National Bank and Bank of England.

Brent crude oil returned down to $50 a barrel area from last week’s high of 52.86 as the number of oil rigs in the US rose by 3 to 328 in the previous week. US dollar index opened with a gap up at 94.80. but then closed the gap declining to 94.50. America will release retail sales figures at 12:30 GMT on Tuesday: a slowdown in the indicator’s growth is expected.

After last week’s reversal to the downside EUR/USD remain under pressure. Support is at 1.1195 and 1.1140. It will be difficult for the bears to pull the single currency below 1.1100. On Tuesday the euro area will release industrial production and employment change data at 09:00 GMT, but the pair will be driven by the market’s risk sentiment and US economic data. The pair will likely remain consolidation ahead of the Fed’s meeting on Wednesday.

USD/JPY is trying to test levels below 200-week MA in the 106.00 area. Next support is at 105.40 and 104.55. According to the consensus forecast, analysts don’t expect the Bank of Japan to act on Thursday, but the majority of them thinks that the BOJ will make such step in July. All in all, the pair remains under negative pressure as long as its trading below 108.90.

GBP/USD fell to 1.4115 after closing below the February-April support line on Friday, when Orb/Independent newspaper poll showed 55% of voters want the country to leave the EU, and 45% support the remain camp. The uncertainty remains, so Brexit fears will remain the main driver of GBP/USD, and this driver will keep pulling the pair down. The UK will release inflation figures at 08:30 GMT. Support is at 1.4070/35, while the short-term recovery may extend to resistance at 1.4300 and 1.4420. 

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