Currency Analyst since 2010

EUR/USD: a final thrust up?

EUR/USD bulls are once again attacking resistance in the $1.3626/46 area. The market players are waiting for the ECB’s meeting at 12:45 GMT and press conference at 13:30 GMT.

According to the consensus forecast, the regulator will leave the benchmark rate unchanged at 0.25%, but traders are nervous being taken off guard by November’s rate cut. The attention will also be on the ECB’s staff projections for 2014 and 2015, and in particular on inflation forecasts. If the euro zone’s recovery continues, the ECB probably won’t ease policy anymore.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch points out that in the near term there’s risk of one last corrective push higher to $1.3682/1.3718. A close below $1.3524/1.3497 says the downtrend has resumed.

Chart. Daily EUR/USD


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