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Currency Analyst since 2010

Forex trading plan for June 29

Although the situation at global financial markets remains uncertain, risk sentiment recovered a bit on Tuesday. Brexit is still the source of concerns, but traders understand that the process of negotiations and discussion between Britain and the European Union will take time, so there won’t be any immediate collapse. The Bank of England and the Bank of Japan are providing liquidity to commercial banks in order to dispel concerns about the banking system. As a result, we’ll likely see a period of consolidation in many assets.  

It was the first day of the EU economic summit. British Prime Minister David Cameron will attend the event. However, he won’t be present at the second day of the summit on Wednesday.  

US final GDP growth in Q1 was revised to the upside from 0.8% to 1.1%. American consumer confidence was strong in June. On Wednesday the nation will release core PCE, personal spending & pending home sales figures. However, the advance of the US dollar index paused as after the Brexit vote the expectations that the Federal reserve will raise rates in the coming months declined.  

GBP/USD recovered from Monday’s low at 1.3120 to 1.3380. Ratings agencies Standard & Poor's and Fitch have downgraded the UK. Although traders calmed down a bit, it’s still a bearish market and we don’t recommend to go against it. EUR/USD recovered, but remained below resistance at 1.1100 and 1.1150. The pair remains vulnerable for a return to 1.0970. USD/JPY remains within a downtrend with the upside potential limited by 104.00. Support is at 100.75. AUD/USD has support at 0.7270, but limited by resistance at 0.7500 and 0.7570.

Brent crude oil seems to consolidate in a triangle. Resistance is at 50.50. The possibility of a strike in Norway if the deal between workers and employers isn’t reached by Saturday is a bullish factor for the price. Watch US crude inventories data on Wednesday. 

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