Currency Analyst since 2010

AUD/USD: outlook for July 18-24

AUD/USD breached resistance at 0.7570 at the beginning of the past week and spent the rest days consolidating above this level. Australian dollar rose as the nation’s labor market data were rather well showing that employment numbers have risen in recent months. Moreover, political uncertainty in Australia finally ended as the ruling coalition managed to secure majority in the new parliament that will allow it’s to form a government. In addition, the overall market’s risk sentiment improved encouraging demand for Aussie. Data from China was especially helpful.

Technically the break above resistance line connecting April and June highs is a positive signal. Not, however, that pairs approaching resistance of the descending 200-week MA in the 0.7700 area. The recent move to the upside isn’t strongly supported by technical indicators. Good data from the United States and some expectations of the Reserve Bank pf Australia’s rate cut in August may put AUD/USD under renewed bearish pressure. The RBA will release July monetary policy meeting minutes on Tuesday. Support is at 0.7600 ahead of 0.7500 and 0.7475.

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