Currency Analyst since 2010

Forex trading plan for July 19

Risk sentiment: The market calmed after the failed coup in Turkey. In addition, Japan's SoftBank agreed to buy British ARM for 23.4 billion pounds ($32 billion), while traders expect additional monetary stimulus from the Bank of Japan and the bank of England in the coming weeks.

US: American housing starts and building permits are due at 12:30 GMT.

EUR/USD: The pair’s consolidating in a triangle around 200-day MA. Support is at 1.1030 ahead of 1.0970 and 1.0920. Resistance is at 1.1125 ahead of 1.1220. The main event for the euro this week is the meeting of the European Central Bank. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg do not expect the regulator to ease policy. Euro area will publish German IFO economic sentiment index at 09:00 GMT.

USD/JPY: The pair was supported om Monday with light liquidity because of the bank holiday in Japan. At the same time US dollar has reached resistance in the 105.50/70 area (200-week MA), and the next resistance is at 107.20. At the same time the near-term outlook will remain positive above support at 103.90.  

GBP/USD: The pair’s having support at 1.3170 and in the 1.3120/00 area. Above 1.3335 it might be able to recover towards 1.3490. The UK new Prime Minister Theresa May is not expecting a detailed Brexit discussion this week. The Bank of England’s PMC member Weale said that he’s not sure whether he will vote for a rate cut in August. Inflation figures are due in the UK at 08:30 GMT.

AUD/USD: The pair is trying to hold above 0.7580 (line connecting April and June highs). The break lower will lead Aussie to 0.7505. Resistance is at 0.7660. The Reserve Bank of Australia will release July monetary policy meeting minutes – we may learn more of how the RBA evaluates the risks associated with the upcoming Brexit. The expectations of an August rate hike remain and should keel the pair under negative pressure.

NZD/USD: New Zealand’s dollar weakened against the greenback after weaker-than-expected inflation figures. Support is at 0.7040. 

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