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Technical forecasts for majors (Dec. 18)

Elizabeth Belougina and Kira Iukhtenko, FX BAZOOKA analysts 

EUR/USD

The medium term trend is to the upside. The pair’s consolidating between $1.3800 and $1.3700.

  • Market is in the waiting mode ahead of the important news: oscillators are generally neutral.
  • 55- and 100-period MAs continue rising.
  • The prices are above the bullish Ichimoku Cloud and its lines, though Tenkan and Kijun formed a dead cross (red and blue lines).

Support: $1.3750, $1.3705, $1.3690 and $1.3625

Resistance: $1.3810, $1.3830, $1.3850.  

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

Upcoming events:

EUR - 9:00 GMT - German Ifo Business Climate

EUR - All Day - ECOFIN Meetings

USD - 13:30 GMT - Building Permits

USD - 19:00 GMT - FOMC Statement, Economic Projections and Federal Funds Rate

GBP/USD

Market sentiment on the H4 is bullish. GBP/USD is trading in a bearish channel since Dec. 11. Cable tested the channel support yesterday (daily low at $0.6215), but met with buyers there.

  • H4 MACD divergence (bullish signal)
  • 55-period MA is still directed to the downside
  • Cable remains below the thin bearish H4 Ichimoku ; dead cross remains valid. Kijun-sen and Tenkan-sen are sidelined, leaving room for a bullish reversal.

Support: $1.6230 (38.2% Fibo), $1.6215, $1.6200

Resistance: $1.6300, $1.6320

Chart. H4 GBP/USD

Upcoming events

GBP - 9:30 GMT - Claimant Count Change, MPC Policy Statement, Unemployment Rate

USD - 13:30 GMT - Building Permits (forecast: 0.99M; previous: 1.04M)

USD - 19:00 GMT - FOMC Statement, Economic Projections and Federal Funds Rate

USD/JPY

Market sentiment is neutral ahead of the Fed: USD/JPY is consolidating in the 102.50/103.15 range.

  • The pair holds above the bullish H4 Ichimoku, though Kijun-sen remains below the Tenkan-sen
  • Supported by the 55-day MA (102.85) and the 100-period MA (102.50)
  • Bulls need a break above 103.15 to take over control of the pair

Support: 102.85, 102.50, 102.30, 102.00, 101.80

Resistance: 103.00, 103.15, 103.40, 103.70, 103.95/104.00

Chart. Daily USD/JPY

Upcoming events:

USD - 13:30 GMT - Building Permits (forecast: 0.99M; previous: 1.04M)

USD - 19:00 GMT - FOMC Statement, Economic Projections and Federal Funds Rate

USD/CHF

USD/CHF clearly remains under the bearish control, trading slightly above the 2-year low of 0.8832. 

  • The pair holds below the wide bearish Ichimoku Cloud, Tenkan and Kijun lines have formed a dead cross
  • MACD histogramm is below the signal line and keeps declining (bearish signal)
  • Sellers need to push the pair below the local low of 0.8830 to open the way to 0.8800

Support: 0.8840, 0.8830, 0.8800, 0.8750

Resistance: 0.8890, 0.8900, 0.8920, 0.8940

Chart. Daily USD/CHF

Upcoming events:

CHF - 10:00 GMT - ZEW Economic Expectations

USD - 13:30 GMT - Building Permits (forecast: 0.99M; previous: 1.04M)

USD - 19:00 GMT - FOMC Statement, Economic Projections and Federal Funds Rate

AUD/USD

The pair keeps consolidating below this week’s highs in the $0.8970 area.

  • Bollinger bands have narrowed: volatility decreased as market players are waiting for the results of the Fed meeting. High and low volatility periods usually follow each other, so the narrowing of the bands often means that the volatility is about to increase sharply.
  • There’s a small divergence in MACD/RSI that may allow bulls to make a correction a bit higher.
  • All MAs are declining that indicates that a medium-term downtrend is well in place.
  • The prices are below the widening bearish Ichimoku Cloud and the indicator lines.

Support: $0.8884, $0.8847, $0.8800.

Resistance: $0.8970, $0.9000, $0.9065.

Chart. H4 AUD/USD

Upcoming events:

USD - 13:30 GMT - Building Permits

USD - 19:00 GMT - FOMC Statement, Economic Projections and Federal Funds Rate

USD - 19:30 GMT - FOMC Press Conference

AUD - 00:30 GMT - RBA Bulletin

USD/CAD

USD/CAD is trading at the lower side of the rising channel. The pair’s making fading fluctuations between 1.0700 and 1.0560.

  • The pair approached resistance provided by the 100- and 50-period MAs. The latter line may cross the former to the downside – this will be a negative signal.
  • The prices are below the bearish Ichimoku Cloud, but Tenkan-sen is providing them some support.
  • MACD is approaching 0 from the downside. RSI (14) rose to 54.

Resistance: 1.0620, 1.0635, 1.0670 and 1.0600.

Support: 1.0585/80 (channel support), 1.0560, 1.0580 and 1.0508.

Chart. H4 USD/CAD

Upcoming events:

USD - 13:30 GMT - Building Permits

CAD - 13:30 GMT - Wholesale Sales

USD - 19:00 GMT - FOMC Statement, Economic Projections and Federal Funds Rate

USD - 19:30 GMT - FOMC Press Conference

 

 

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