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FX BAZOOKA: technicals for majors (19.12)

EUR/USD

EUR/USD breached support at $1.3705 on the news that the Fed will taper QE.

  • The pair fell below 55-period MA and is trading in the area of the100-period one. The lines went from rising to the horizontal state.
  • The prices are at the lower edge of the Ichimoku Cloud ($1.3666) which is currently providing support. Failure here will be a bearish signal. The bullish Cloud itself has dramatically narrowed.
  • MACD went to the negative territory. RSI is currently signaling oversold.

Support: $1.3666, $1.3648, $1.3625 and $1.3575

Resistance: $1.3705, $1.3740/50, $1.3790

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

Upcoming events:

EUR - 9:00 GMT - Current Account

EUR - All Day - European Council meeting (banking union discussion)

USD - 13:30 GMT - Unemployment Claims

USD - 15:00 GMT - Existing Home Sales

USD - 15:00 GMT - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

USD - 15:00 GMT - CB Leading Index

GBP/USD

Market sentiment on the H4 is bullish. Cable is consolidating around $1.6380 after having jumped to $1.6485 post the Fed’s announcement. We remain bullish for the pair as long as it holds above $1.6320.

  • The cable broke above the bearish channel.
  • H4 MACD histogram rose into the positive territory (bullish sign).
  • Cable rose above the 100- and 55- period MAs.
  • Ichimoku Cloud is also giving out bullish signals.

Support: $1.6340, $1.6300, $1.6230 (38.2% Fibo), $1.6215

Resistance: $1.6435, $1.6465, $1.6500

 

Chart. H4 GBP/USD

Upcoming events:

GBP - 9:30 GMT – Retails sales

USD - 13:30 GMT - Unemployment Claims

USD - 15:00 GMT - Existing Home Sales

USD - 15:00 GMT - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

USD - 15:00 GMT - CB Leading Index

USD/JPY

Bulls have regained control over the pair: USD/JPY rose by almost 200 pips yesterday, touching a new 5-year high of 104.40.The bullish impulse slowed at these levels, resulting in another wave of bearish correction.

• USD/JPY holds above the bullish H4 Ichimoku with Kijun-sen crossing the Tenkan-sen to the upside.

• Supported by the 55-day MA (102.85) and the 100-period MA (102.50).

• MACD histogram rose into the positive territory (bullish sign).

• Sentiment remains bullish as long as the 103.75 support holds.

Support: 103.75, 103.40, 102.50

Resistance: 104.40, 105.00, 105.55

 

Chart. Daily USD/JPY

Upcoming events:

USD - 13:30 GMT - Unemployment Claims

USD - 15:00 GMT - Existing Home Sales

USD - 15:00 GMT - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

USD - 15:00 GMT - CB Leading Index

USD/CHF

Bearish pressure on USD/CHF eased as the pair rose from the 2-year low of 0.8832 to 0.8960.

  • The pair broke into the wide bearish Ichimoku and is trading not far from the Cloud resistance now (0.8975).
  • MACD histogram rose into the positive territory (bullish sign).
  • The price rose above the 55-period MA that acted as a resistance, but met sellers at the 100-period MA
  • Buyers need a break above the 0.8960/75 resistance to move further

Support: 0.8930, 0.8920, 0.8900

Resistance: 0.8960/75, 0.9000, 0.9030

 

Chart. Daily USD/CHF

Upcoming events:

USD - 13:30 GMT - Unemployment Claims

CHF - 14:00 GMT - SNB Quarterly Bulletin

USD - 15:00 GMT - Existing Home Sales

USD - 15:00 GMT - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

USD - 15:00 GMT - CB Leading Index

AUD/USD

AUD/USD renewed this year’s low by sliding to $0.8821. Aussie was already quite oversold, so here we didn’t see such a big decline as in other pairs.

  • The pair is at the lower Bollinger band and there’s still a small divergence in MACD/RSI, so we expect some correction up.
  • All MAs are declining that indicates that a medium-term downtrend is well in place.
  • The prices are below the bearish Ichimoku Cloud. The indicator lines went horizontal, so we may see some consolidation.

Support: $0.8820, $0.8800, $0.8755

Resistance: $0.8880, $0.8900, $0.8970, $0.9000

Chart. H4 AUD/USD

Upcoming events:

USD - 13:30 GMT - Unemployment Claims

USD - 15:00 GMT - Existing Home Sales

USD - 15:00 GMT - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

USD - 15:00 GMT - CB Leading Index

USD/CAD

USD/CAD reached the highest level since 2010 at 1.0725. The medium-term uptrend continues.

  1. 100- and 50-period MAs turned a bit up. The lines are melded together. So far 50-period MA hasn’t fallen below the 100-period one.
  2. RSI (14) is still in the overbought area above 70. The pair’s above the upper Bollinger band.
  3. The prices rose above the Ichimoku Cloud which has turned bullish. The Cloud, however, is thin and the indicator lines went horizontal.

Resistance: 1.0725, 1.0745, 1.0800 (38.2% of the decline from 2008 to 2011)

Support: 1.0700, 1.0670, 1.0635

Chart. H4 USD/CAD

Upcoming events:

USD - 13:30 GMT - Unemployment Claims

USD - 15:00 GMT - Existing Home Sales

USD - 15:00 GMT - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

USD - 15:00 GMT - CB Leading Index

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