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Currency Analyst since 2010

AUD/USD: outlook for August 8-14

Although economic news from Australia weren’t very exciting, Australian dollar manage to hold ground against its US counterpart.

Australian economic figures disappointed: building approvals kept contracting, trade deficit widened, while retail sales growth was weaker than expected. The Reserve Bank of Australia cut the cash rate from 1.75% to 1.5%. However, this decision was already priced in by the market, and AUD/USD rebounded from 100-day MA and the top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud in the 0.7485 area and made an attempt to overcome 2016 resistance line.

However, strong US nonfarm payrolls brought AUD/USD lower. A weekly close below 0.7635 will open the way for decline to 0.7580 and 0.7550. Further support is at 0.7490.    

As for the economic calendar, NAB business confidence will be released on Tuesday. On Wednesday we’ll hear from the RBA Governor Stevens. Australian central bank doesn’t like stronger national currency, so if the RBA voices its concerns Aussie bears will finally take the situation in their hands. Also watch China’s economic statistics as it will affect the market’s risk sentiment and, consequently, AUD/USD.   

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