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Currency Analyst since 2010

FX BAZOOKA: technicals (Dec. 23)

 

EUR/USD

EUR/USD managed to rise from support at $1.3625 and test $1.3710.

  • 55-period MA is starting to slope down.
  • The prices returned inside the Ichimoku Cloud. Tenkan-sen (red line at $1.3667) is providing some support. The Cloud turned bearish, but isn’t widening.
  • MACD remains in the negative territory, but above the signal line. RSI (14) went from oversold to the neutral state (46).

Above $1.3667 there’s scope for increase to $1.3718/33. Upper Bollinger band is at $1.3760. Below this level we’ll be selling.

Resistance: $1.3690, $1.3705, $1.3740/50, $1.3790

Support: $1.3667, $1.3625, $1.3613, $1.3600 and $1.3575 (200-period MA)

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

Upcoming events:

USD - 13:30 GMT - Core PCE Price Index

USD - 13:30 GMT - Personal Spending

EUR - 14:00 GMT - Belgian NBB Business Climate

USD - 14:55 GMT - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

GBP/USD

GBP bulls have given some ground after a quick test of the $1.6485 high last week. Cable has been consolidating in a narrow descending channel since then. However, the pair remains supported at $1.6320 (23.6% Fibo) for now.

  • H4 MACD histogram is declining and is below the signal line (bearish signal);
  • Cable slipped below the 100- and 55-period MAs.

Support:  $1.6320, $1.6300 (channel support), $1.6230 (38.2% Fibo)

Resistance: $1.6360, $1.6400,$1.6430

 

Chart. H4 GBP/USD

Upcoming events:

USD - 13:30 GMT - Core PCE Price Index

USD - 13:30 GMT - Personal Spending

USD - 14:55 GMT - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

USD/JPY

USD/JPY is retracing a little lower from 104.60 (5-year high 104.60). Our next target for the pair lies at 105.55.

  • USD/JPY holds above the bullish H4 Ichimoku. The Kijun line lies above the Tenkan line, but both lines are flat.
  • The pair remains supported by the 55-day MA (102.85) and the 100-period MA (102.50);
  • H4 MACD histogram is declining and is below the signal line (bearish signal);
  • 104.00/103.75 is the key area of support for now.

Support: 104.00/103.90, 103.75, 103.40

Resistance: 104.60, 105.00, 105.55

 

Chart. H4 USD/JPY

Upcoming events:

USD - 13:30 GMT - Core PCE Price Index

USD - 13:30 GMT - Personal Spending

USD - 14:55 GMT - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

 USD/CHF

USD/CHF is correcting lower after hitting the 0.9000 mark (38.2% Fibo) on Friday.

  • We believe the last week’s break above the 0.8975 resistance opened the way to 0.9050.
  • The pair remains supported by the wide bearish Ichimoku, the 100-period MA and the middle Bollinger (0.8970/45 area);
  • H4 MACD histogram is declining and is below the signal line.

Support: 0.8930/20, 0.8900/8890

Resistance: 0.9000, 0.9030, 0.9050

Chart. H4 USD/CHF

Upcoming events:

USD - 13:30 GMT - Core PCE Price Index

USD - 13:30 GMT - Personal Spending

USD - 14:55 GMT - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

AUD/USD

AUD/USD recovered to $0.8950.

  • The pair returned to the upper Bollinger band and approached 55-period MA.
  • All MAs keep declining that indicates that a medium-term downtrend is well in place.
  • The prices are below the bearish Ichimoku Cloud. However, the Cloud stopped expanding, while Tenkan and Kijun formed a golden cross, weak as it is below the Cloud. Still these lines provide support ($0.8900).
  • MACD has reached the 0 area on its way up. RSI rose almost to 60.

There will be no news from Australia to help Aussie extend upward correction.  

Resistance: $0.8970, $.8990/9000, $0.9040

Support: $0.8900, $0.8820, $0.8800, $0.8755

Chart. H4 AUD/USD

Upcoming events

USD - 13:30 GMT - Core PCE Price Index

USD - 13:30 GMT - Personal Spending

USD - 14:55 GMT - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

USD/CAD

As expected, USD/CAD corrected down to 1.0635.

  1. The pair is supported at the current level (100-period MA, Ichimoku Cloud top).
  2. 200-period MA is still going up, so the medium-term uptrend continues. 55-period MA is horizontal though and below the 100-period one.
  3. MACD is going down and approaching 0 from. RSI (14) declined to 45.
  4. The bullish Ichimoku Cloud stopped expanding. Tenkan-sen turned down.

The loss of 1.0660 allows downside scope for 1.0600, the lower Bollinger band.

Support: 1.0635, 1.0615, 1.0600, 1.0560

Resistance: 1.0685, 1.0700, 1.0725, 1.0745

Chart. H4 USD/CAD

Upcoming events

USD - 13:30 GMT - Core PCE Price Index

USD - 13:30 GMT - Personal Spending

CAD - 13:30 GMT - GDP

USD - 14:55 GMT - Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

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