Currency Analyst since 2010

NFP: weak or strong?

The market’s focus in turning from Ukraine to US NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) release for February due today at 13:30 GMT (forecast: 151K; previous: 113K). The readings in the 2 previous months were weak. Let’s examine some data which can be used to predict NFP this month.

Arguments for higher NFP:

1. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index rose.

2. Challenger Job Cuts fell by 24.4%.

3. Continuing Claims declined from 2.933 million to 2.907 million.

Arguments for lower NFP:

1. Employment component of Services ISM Drops minimum since March 2010.

2. ADP employment change rose from 127K to 139K, but there was a big downward revision of the previous reading.

3. Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index declined.

4. Employment component of Manufacturing ISM fell.

5. 4-week average of Jobless Claims slightly increased.

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