Currency Analyst since 2010

Trade on US data releases

The Fed’s Chairwoman Janet Yellen said yesterday US economy will need stimulus “for some time.” Analysts at BNP Paribas think, however, that Yellen’s dovish comments was an attempt to reverse some of the impression created by her “6 months” reference (time between the end of QE and the start of rate hikes) at the March FOMC press conference. The specialists note, however, that the market’s reaction was muted. In their view, this seems unlikely to reverse and prospects for USD will remain good unless data begins to materially deteriorate again.

Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict a report today will show quicker manufacturing growth, while a private survey tomorrow may indicate an improving jobs market. Figures tomorrow from the ADP Research Institute may show companies in the US added 195K jobs in March after boosting positions by 139K the previous month.

Citigroup Inc.’s Economic Surprise Index for the US, which shows whether data beat or fell short of economists’ forecasts, dropped to a one-week low of minus 32.60 yesterday.

BNPP is long on USD/JPY ahead of the release of the ISM Manufacturing PMI (14:00 GMT).

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