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What to expect from the US NFP?

US non-farm payrolls release at 12:30 GMT on Friday will be the key risk event for tomorrow. According to the consensus forecast, non-farm employment is expected to rise by 167K in May (April reading: a 165K rise). The majority of economists expect the employment growth to come in the 150-180K range.

May figure will be watched with an extreme interest as this data is key for the Fed to decide on when to start tapering the QE program. Specialists say that May economic data were mixed and sometimes controversial, but the general picture is about the gradual recovery.

Citibank claims that there are a lot of long USD positions, so if American data tomorrow comes out weaker than expected, there may be a knee-jerk pullback down in USD. On a longer time-frame, the risks remain weighted in favor of USD appreciation in the weeks ahead.

Image: Bloomberg

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