Currency Analyst since 2010

June 10: Asian session

The market’s still assessing the events of last week – comments from the ECB and US NFP. EUR/USD opened with a gap down at $1.3189 after closing at $1.3218 on Friday. During the Asian session euro rose to $1.3228, but then returned below $1.3200. Today watch for French and Italian industrial production readings and the euro zone’s Sentix investor confidence release.

GBP/USD also opened with a gap down at $1.5513 after closing at $1.5555 on Friday. Pound tested $1.5560, but then returned lower, closer to the opening levels. USD/CHF is trading in the green zone around 0.9370 following the Friday’s sharp rise from the levels below 0.9300. USD/CAD opened with a gap up at 1.0220, but then tested 1.0180.

USD/JPY has opened the week with a gap up at 97.80 and strengthened above 98.00. On Friday the pair closed at 97.40 following a dip to the 95.00 support. On Sunday Japan released a bunch of better-than-expected data: current account surplus increased to 750B yen (forecast: 35B), while final Q1 GDP growth was unexpectedly revised up from 0.9% to 1.0%. In addition, Monday’s release showed Japan’s consumer confidence rose from 44.5 to 45.7. The Bank of Japan starts a two-day monetary policy meeting today (no changes expected).

AUD/USD has opened with a bearish gap at $0.9400, pressured by generally worse-than-expected weekend Chinese data and after a holiday in Australia on Sunday. May China trade surplus came at $20.4B (expected $20.8B, previous $18B). CPI for May came at 2.1% y/y (expected 2.5%, prior 2.4%). In the Asian trade AUD edged higher, but the upside remains capped at $0.9460. NZD/USD follows the Aussie and holds below the $0.7900 mark.

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