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Currency Analyst since 2010

June 17: Asian session

Investors are still trying to guess about the outcome of the Fed’s June 18-19 meeting. On Friday  data showed that US industrial output was worse than expected, while University of Michigan’s index of US consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell from a nearly 6-year high in early June.

EUR/USD declined by about 25 pips from the opening level at $1.3345. The euro area is expected to post growth in trade surplus (09:00 GMT). Also pay attention to G8 meeting in Northern Ireland. GBP/USD is once again testing levels below $1.5700 after opening above this handle. USD/CAD is down by about 15 pips, to 1.0160.

USD/JPY opened the week with a gap down at 94.10 and strengthened to 94.70. Nikkei index closed the day rising by 2%. Japan’s tertiary industry index came unchanged vs. a +0.2% growth expected. USD/CHF strengthened to 0.9240.

AUD/USD closed the morning’s bearish gap and strengthened to $0.9620 (23.6% Fibo from the April-May dip). Weekend news showed a 5.1% decline in Australian gold production in Q1. Australia’s new motor vehicle sales for May came at 0.0% m/m vs. -1.7% prior. NZD/USD recovered to $0.8080. The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research maintained their 2013/14 GDP forecast at 2.7% and raised their 2014/15 forecasts to 3.1%.

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