Westpac: the meaning of RBA minutes
Analysts at Westpac have made the following conclusions from the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting minutes released today:
- There’s no evidence that the RBA is seriously considering rate cuts.
- The RBA seems comfortable with waiting for further developments before choosing a policy path.
- The RBA is not particularly worried about the emerging weakness in the consumer sector and provides strong emphasis around the sharp lift in residential investment (this view may have changed after data came out that Australian retail sales fell by 0.5%).
- The analysis of the RBA’s rhetoric shows that it may be preparing to shorten the ‘on hold’ policy stance and increase rates earlier – though for now this is just a hypothesis.
Westpac expects that the RBA will remain on hold until September 2015.