Currency Analyst since 2010

June 18: Asian session

EUR/USD was capped by $1.3380 yesterday. Today the single currency is trading a bit on the downside, consolidating within an ascending triangle which may be clearly seen on the H1 chart. The ECB President Mario Draghi speaks today at 06:00 GMT. Later Germany and the euro area are to release ZEW Economic Sentiment figures for June. GBP/USD keeps fluctuating around $1.5700 ahead of the release of inflation data at 08:30 GMT.

USD/JPY extends gains for a second day following the last week’s test of the levels below 94.00. Today bulls faced resistance at the 95.00 mark. Yen weakened against most of its major peers after a Bank of Japan report showed its current-account balance, a measure of financial firms’ deposits at the central bank, will rise to a record amid unprecedented monetary stimulus. According to Japan’s economy minister Amari, Abenomics “received extremely high approval at G8 summit”. Watch the Japan's trade balance at 23:50 GMT.

AUD/USD touched $0.9575, supported by expectations of policy easing in China, but slipped back to $0.9500 on the RBA minutes. As expected, there was no hint on rate cuts in July, but minutes suggest the AUD is still viewed by the RBA as overvalued and there is scope for more easing given the low inflation level. NZD/USD followed the Aussie and is consolidating below 0.8000. USD/CAD is trying to get higher, but is limited by resistance around 1.0200.

The upcoming Fed’s meeting remains the main factor to watch this week.

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