Currency Analyst since 2010

July 3: Asian session

The Dollar Index rose to the maximal level in a month before a report forecast to show American companies added more jobs in June. Today in the US watch for the ADP employment report (12:15 GMT), unemployment claims and trade balance (12:30 GMT) and ISM services PMI (14:00 GMT).

EUR/USD breached $1.3000 yesterday and is little changed today trading in the $1.2970 area. Euro feels weak ahead of the ECB’s meeting scheduled on tomorrow. Spain and Italy will release services PMIs at 07:15 and 07:45 GMT. GBP/USD fell below $1.5200 on Monday and is little changed today trading in the $1.5150 zone. UK is to publish services PMI at 08:30 GMT. USD/JPY extends the upside, touching a new monthly high of 100.85. USD/CHF is consolidating a bit above 0.9500 following the yesterday’s growth to 0.9530.

AUD/USD tried to rally early in the day, capped at $0.9200, but reversed down, touching a fresh low of $0.9095 following the RBA head’s Stevens dovish speech. According to him, “a flexible exchange rate is an important part of adjustment over all phases of the cycle and it remains a major advantage that RBA has. If the economy ‘needs’ a lower exchange rate, it will probably get it”. Australia released a bunch of data today, including new home sales (+1.6% m/m vs. +3.9% prior), retail sales (+0.1% vs. prior -0.1%) and trade balance for May (+670M vs. expected +53M and prior 171M). NZD/USD declined to $0.7730. China released service PMIs today: official June figure came lower at 53.9 vs. 54.3 prior, while HSBC services PMI remains lower (51.3 vs. 51.2 in May). USD/CAD is trading around 1.0540 after reaching 1.0577, the highest level since October 2011. Pay attention to the publication of Canada’s trade balance at 12:30 GMT.

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