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Currency Analyst since 2010

USD ahead of employment data

This is the first week of the month and the market players are looking forward to the release of US non-farm employment change on Friday (forecast: 162K; previous: 175K).

Before that ADP non-farm employment change (forecast: 161K; previous: 135K) due today at 12:15 GMT may offer some hints about the condition of US labor market.

Analysts at Credit Agricole say that a strong ADP gain today should provide USD with the necessary impetus to push higher ahead of Friday.

Note that although ADP report is used for forecasting NFP, it isn’t very accurate. In the last 8 months the ADP misses have ranged from -63K, with payrolls weaker than ADP, to +57K, with payrolls stronger than ADP.

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