Currency Analyst since 2010

July 25: Asian session

EUR/USD is trading on the upside in the $1.3215 area after it reached $1.3256 yesterday, but failed to hold there. On Wednesday firstly euro and then US dollar got support from encouraging manufacturing PMI data.  Today in the euro area watch Spanish unemployment rate at 07:00 GMT, German Ifo business climate at 08:00 GMT (forecast: 106.3; previous: 105.9) and M3 money supply figures. Late today in the US don’t miss core durable goods orders and jobless claims at 12:30 GMT.

GBP/USD is trading on the upside in the $1.5340 area. This week the pair’s capped by the levels below $1.5400. UK will release today at 08:30 GMT preliminary Q2 GDP growth (forecast: 0.6%; previous: 0.3%). 

USD/JPY is trading in the negative zone around 99.90, down from the yesterday’s high of 100.45. Later in the day Japan is scheduled to release Tokyo core CPI (forecast: + 0.3% y/y, previous: +0.2% y/y). The figure is expected to show improvement for a third month in a row, reaching the highest level since 2011. USD/CHF continues a range-bound trade around 0.9360.

NZD/USD soared to $0.7990 as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left its cash rate unchanged at 2.5%. The regulator expects to keep the rate low through to the end of 2013, but in future “the removal of monetary stimulus will likely be needed”. According to RBNZ Governor Wheeler, kiwi still remains overvalued. AUD/USD is consolidating around $0.9165 following the yesterday’s sharp drop to $0.9133. USD/CAD is once again trying to test levels below 1.0300. Yesterday the pair hit 1-month low at 1.0262, but then managed to close at 1.0309.

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