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Currency Analyst since 2010

August 15: Asian session

US dollar weakened versus most of its counterparts as St. Louis Fed President James Bullard said yesterday policy makers should be careful in changing course based solely on their economic forecasts thus cautioning cautioned against excessive optimism over the economy. Economists predict a report today will show gains in US consumer prices slowed in July (12:30 GMT). Don’t miss the weekly report on the labor market, followed by regional gauges of the manufacturing sector – NY Empire State and Philly Fed (the latter is due at 14:00 GMT) indices.

EUR/USD recovered from $1.3250 to $1.3310, but then returned below $1.3300. No releases in the euro area today. French and Italian banks are closed for holidays. GBP/USD tested resistance line at $1.5540 and is now trading 20 pips below this level, at $1.5520. Pound’s on the upside for the second day before a report (08:30 GMT) that may show UK retail sales rose by 0.7% percent in July, from a 0.2% advance in the previous month.

USD/JPY has first strengthened from lows around 97.75 to touch 98.30, but touched a daily low of 97.60 on the news that both Japan’s chief cabinet secretary Suga and Japan’s Finance Minister Aso denied the fact that PM Abe made any instructions on a corporate tax cut.

AUD/USD found support at $0.9120 and strengthened to $0.9185 in the Asian trade. NZD/USD corrected slightly down after having reached a high of $0.8075 (highest since the end of July). New Zealand business manufacturing index rose to a record high of 59.5 in July (June reading revised up to 55.2). USD/CAD peaked at 1.0370 yesterday and slid to 1.0313 today. Canadian dollar benefited as the market’s sentiment improved on the news that the euro zone has finally emerged from recession.  

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