US recession has only 2%

Constant warnings of a potential American recession have come into style this year. Nevertheless, Aneta Markowska, a Société Générale economist keeps giving positive forecasts.  From her point of view, there’s just a 2% probability of American recession hitting at any point right before this year’s fourth quarter. She has conducted thorough research, taking into account a wide range of leading financial as well as economic indicators.  

Aneta says that wage pressures are only starting to materialize. Then, monetary policy is still accommodative and it’s going to be normalized soon.  As for domestic profit margins or in other words revenues obtained from domestic production, they’re still close to cyclical heights. Additionally, corporate balance sheets outside of the energy sector are quite healthy.   

Aneta’s optimistic tone contrasts with the gloomy mood of RBC Capital Markets. Well, RBC informed investors that this week growing risks of US recession could send American stock market over a cliff.

Albert Edwards, the bank’s global strategist told last month the S&P 500 could dip to 550 and unsteady industrial production might point out to the beginning of a recession.  

Most analysts agree that the shock won’t push American economy into another recession. Perhaps, the worst thing we can count on is a tough mid-cycle slowdown.   



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