Currency Analyst since 2010

Nov. 6: Asian session

EUR/USD keeps consolidating in the $1.3460/3525 area. Today euro returned to the levels above $1.3500 on the expectations that the ECB will keep interest rates unchanged tomorrow, while data due to be released in the US on Thursday may show that American economic growth slowed down in Q3 – such outcome will reduce the odds of the Fed starting QE tapering anytime soon. In the euro area pay attention to Spanish and Italian services PMIs at 08:15-45, the region’s retail sales at 10:00 GMT and German factory orders at 11:00 GMT.

GBP/USD rose to $1.6095. Britain will publish manufacturing production figures at 09:30 GMT and NIESR GDP Estimate at 15:00 GMT. USD/JPY moved up to 98.75 as the rise in Nikkei boosted risk sentiment. The Bank of Japan’s October policy meeting minutes have once again confirmed that Japan’s economy is recovering moderately. USD/CHF met resistance around 0.9140 and slid to 0.9110.

NZD/USD tested the $0.8400 mark, supported by strong quarterly labor market data. Employment rose by 1.2% q/q (forecast: +0.5%). Unemployment rate lowered from 6.4% to 6.2%. AUD/USD has also recovered some ground to $0.9530, but the upside remains limited by the yesterday’s high. Today’s data showed September trade deficit narrowed to 284M (vs. expected 500M). Australia employment figures will be released tonight. USD/CAD met resistance around 1.0460. Watch Canadian building permits at 13:30 GMT and Ivey PMI at 15:00 GMT.


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