Currency Analyst since 2010

Nov. 8: Asian session

US dollar mostly holds its grounds before the NFP release at 13:30 GMT (forecast: 121K; previous: 148K) and after data yesterday showed the economy expanded more than forecast. Later today, at 14:55 GMT, there will be the release of the University of Michigan consumer confidence survey.

EUR/USD spiked down to $1.3294 yesterday as the ECB lowered its benchmark rate to 0.25%, but then managed to close above $1.3400. Euro’s currently trading a bit above this handle. In the euro area watch for German trade balance at 07:00 GMT and French industrial production at 07:45 GMT. GBP/USD tested $1.6009 yesterday, but then closed just below $1.6100 and is currently trading in this area. Britain will release trade balance at 09:30 GMT.

USD/JPY is consolidating in a tight 98.05/25 range after the yesterday volatile trade. Nikkei 225 dropped by 1.15% to the lowest level since early October. USD/CHF spiked up to 0.9250 yesterday, but closed at 0.9155 and is currently trading about 50 pips above this level.

AUD/USD has recovered to $0.9460 after a dip to $0.9430 earlier in the session. Aussie has initially come under pressure on quite dovish RBA meeting minutes (rate cut still possible if needed), but later has recovered some ground on a better-than expected China trade balance. NZD/USD recovered to $0.8330 after having tested $0.8305 yesterday. USD/CAD rose to the levels in the 1.0450 area yesterday and has been trading in this area during the Asian session today. Canada will also publish employment data at 13:30 GMT.

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