85
Currency Analyst since 2010

Nov. 21: Asian session

EUR/USD is testing support around $1.3415 (23.6% and 38.2% Fibo retracements). Yesterday euro met resistance at $1.3580 and fell by more than 100 pips. Euro got under additional pressure after people with knowledge of the discussion said the ECB may do more easing and cut its deposit rate to minus 0.1%. Today watch a bunch of PMIs released in the euro area at 08:00-09:00 GMT. Later today US will release the unemployment claims, PPI (13:30 GMT) and Philly Fed manufacturing index (15:00 GMT).  

GBP/USD hit $1.6071 after it spiked to $1.6178 yesterday. The Bank of England’s minutes released on Wednesday gave pound initial lift, but then the Fed overshadowed that news. Watch British public sector net borrowing (09:30 GMT) and CBI industrial order expectations (11:00 GMT).

USD/JPY rose to a fresh 2-month high of 100.50 (close to the September highs of 100.60), but eased by 10 pips lower as of writing. As expected, the Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged at a pace of 60–70 trillion yen annual rise in monetary base. The regulator repeated that economy keeps recovering gradually and that the loose policy will continue until the 2% inflation is stabilized. USD/CHF rose to 0.9170, though it’s still trading below Wednesday’s high at 0.9190.

Commodity currencies weakened on increased US tapering expectations and downbeat China data. China HSBC November flash manufacturing PMI came a little bit below the forecast at 50.4 (vs. 50.9 previous and expected). Activity in China's factory sector slowed in this month as new export orders shrank. AUD/USD extends the downside for a second day in a row after having topped at $0.9450 on Wednesday. The pair declined to the $0.9300 mark in today’s Asian trade and approached the key $0.9275 support. Further decline would confirm a short-term head-and-shoulders pattern.  RBA Governor Stevens will hold a speech today at 9:05 GMT. There is a chance to hear some dovish comments aimed at talking the Aussie down. NZD/USD follows the Aussie, descending to $0.8235. USD/CAD rose to 1.0469 approaching yesterday’s highs.

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