Currency Analyst since 2010

Nov. 22: Asian session

EUR/USD recovered yesterday to $1.3480 as the ECB President Draghi said that policy makers haven’t changed their mind on a negative deposit rate. During today’s Asian session the pair eased down to $1.3462. Watch for German final GDP at 07:00 GMT and Ifo business climate at 09:00 GMT and another Draghi’s speech at 09:30 GMT. We’ll also hear from the ECB Governing Council member Jens Weidmann and Executive Board member Peter Praet. The Eurogroup meeting also takes place today. GBP/USD is consolidating just below $1.6200 after it gained about 100 pips on Thursday.

JPY fell to fresh 4-month low vs. the USD and a 4-year low vs. the EUR on the signs of improving risk appetite. USD/JPY has formed a strong bullish candle yesterday, closing the day above the 101.00 mark. On Friday the pair extended the upside, but ran into sellers at 101.35 and gave some gains back. EUR/JPY broke through a strong resistance area to 136.40. USD/CHF rose to 0.9150.

AUD/USD remains under pressure for a third consecutive day. On Thursday the Aussie broke below the $0.9270 support on dovish RBA Stevens’ comments and hit a 2.5-month low at $0.9170 on Friday. The bears are clearly dominating here. NZD/USD fell to $0.8170 yesterday, but found some support here (200-day MA, Oct. and Nov. lows). The pair is swinging in the $0.8185/8245 range on Friday. RBNZ Assistant Governor McDermott gave a speech in New Zealand today, saying the kiwi is overvalued.

USD/CAD climbed to the highest level since September at 1.0546 continuing its yesterday’s advance from 1.0450. Canadian dollar fell after the Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz reiterated to lawmakers yesterday that low rates will remain appropriate until the economy shows more signs it’s gaining momentum. Canada will release inflation and retail sales data at 13:30 GMT.

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