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Dec. 4: Asian session

EUR/USD is trading around $1.3585, below yesterday’s high at $1.3613. Euro remains near month-high before the ECB meeting tomorrow, when the central bank is expected to refrain from cutting the benchmark interest rate. Euro area will release retail sales at 10:00 GMT (forecast +0.2% after -0.6%) and revised GDP data. In the US ADP will release its non-farm payrolls figure at 13:15 GMT (forecast: 172K; prior: 130K). Also watch for ISM non-manufacturing PMI and new home sales at 15:00 GMT.

GBP/USD is trading just below $1.6400, below the recent highs in the $1.6400 area. Pound was near the highest since 2011 after a report showed Britain’s construction expanded at the fastest pace in more than 6 years. USD/JPY is trading in a choppy fashion in the 102.25/65 range. The pair is now testing the lower border of the November bullish channel. Japanese Nikkei index dropped by 2.6% from the 5-month high set on Tuesday. USD/CHF edged up to 0.9050 after it slipped by 65 pips to 0.9020 yesterday.

Australia Q3 GDP disappointed the markets, rising only by 0.6% q/q (forecast: 0.7%) and 2.3% y/y (forecast: 2.6%). As a result, AUD/USD fell by almost 100 pips to $0.9050 (3-month low), retesting the $0.9055/65 support. However, this area contains the bearish pressure for now. NZD/USD fell back below $0.8200. China HSBC services PMI for November has also come a little bit below the forecast (52.5 vs. 52.6 prior). USD/CAD edged down to 1.0640 after it peaked to 1.0672 yesterday. Canadian dollar remains near 3-year low ahead of a central-bank rate decision today. The Bank of Canada will probably leave its benchmark rate unchanged at 1%.

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