Dec.4: American session
Not only the today’s release on the European retail sales data happened to be disappointing (negative trends are observed in both annual and monthly reports), as some oil was also poured in flames by the ADP agency statistics on employment in non-farm payrolls in the U.S. for November. The number of new jobs increased up to 215 thousand instead of the decline down to 173 thousand predicted by analysts after the October’s 183 thousand. Thus, the chances of premature collapse of the quantitative easing policy have again increased. As a result, the EUR / USD fell to lows of 1.3530 yesterday, but having received support here, is currently attempting to recover. Today’s negative British stats (an ongoing decline in service sector business activity; the index as low as 60.0 in November as opposed to prev.62.5 level) served as a pretext for the GBP / USD sales as well. Trades are now provided below the two-day lows at the 1.6340 level. By the end of the trading session the Fed will publish thr "Beige Book" report. Therefore, high volatility is likely to persist.
ADP data has also affected the USD / CHF currency pair. After having updated yesterday's lows and having touched the level of 0.9010, the pair sets session highs near the 0.9075 mark. The USD / JPY pair has consolidated above 102.30 support, but at the moment it is going to break through the range of 102.30-102.70 upwards once again. Bullish trends are growing.
The AUD / USD moves down on the grounds of disappointing GDP data for Australia. The Australian Bureau of Statistics reported a decrease in the dynamics of annual GDP by 0.1% this morning. The growth made 2.3 % only, against 2.6 % expected. The 0.9060 support, which have been holding the market, finally collapsed and the pair fell to the 0.9000 figure. The August lows are likely to return back. The New Zealand dollar also was also declining against the U.S. and is now consolidating just above 0.8170 support.
Bank of Canada, as analysts expected, left interest rates unchanged at 1.00 %. This decision has weakened the national currency’s positions once again and led to USD / CAD resumption. The pair is being traded at the session highs – at 1.0690 level and may soon reach the 2010 extrema.
Tatiana Norkina , an analyst at FBS