Currency Analyst since 2010

May 29: Asian session

US consumer confidence released yesterday came much better than expected and investors are expecting more positive news from America: tomorrow the world’s largest economy will publish preliminary GDP growth figures for Q1 amid speculation the Federal Reserve will curb monetary stimulus. US treasury yields closed on Tuesday on the highest level in a year (10-year yield rose to 2.17%). USD strengthened versus its main counterperts.

EUR/USD dropped below $1.2900 yesterday and is now trading around $1.2850. There will be some important economic data from Germany in the coming session, including the most recent data on CPI and unemployment. Yesterday we’ve seen some really sour data from France where consumer confidence fell to the minimal level since 2008.  

USD/JPY touched 102.50 in the morning, but has lost growth momentum along with the Nikkei 225 index and dipped to the 102.00 support. As of writing, US dollar recovered to 102.30. Japanese retail sales contracted only by 0.1% vs. the forecasted 0.4% slump. BOJ’s head Kuroda spoke in Tokyo today but without saying anything new.

GBP/USD is declining and approaching $1.5000. Pound is down from $1.5100 where it opened yesterday. USD/CAD is at 1-year highs around 1.0415. USD/CHF holds a bit below the Tuesday high of 0.9780.

AUD/USD has decisively pulled through the $0.9600 level and dropped to $0.9550. PIMCO report released today showed a need for more RBA rate cuts as experts see the mining slowdown as a real threat to the Australian economy. The IMF has cut China’s growth outlook from 8% in 2013 and from 8.2% in 2014 to 7.75%, what also is a clear negative factor for the Australian economy. Australian construction work completed and new home sales came below the forecasts this morning. NZD/USD slipped to $0.8050 along with the Aussie.

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